Friday, April 24, 2009

21st century Challenges from lawlessness: Piracy and the Taliban.

 

Two major news items caught my attention this week. It wasn't; like these were the only ones :) These were

a. More Ships hijacked by Somali pirates

b. Taliban getting awfully close to Islamabad, Pakistan.

In a way both these developments are remarkably similar.

Piracy is in essence a law and order issue, and in Somalia there is virtually no authority to carry out the kind of policing that could effectively disrupt pirate operations. What government there is in Somalia has bigger problems. Somalia has spent almost 20 years in a state of civil war, and shifting alliances, international interventions and a steady supply of unemployed young men and cheap guns have acted against any tendencies towards stabilization.

In Pakistan deep structural problems have created fertile ground for the Talibanization of Pakistan. I recommend reading The Idea of Pakistan by Stephen P. Cohen.

I am fortunate to have friends from Pakistan. Many a times we feel “PAKISTAN” the country is a problem. The problems are pretty basic: poverty, the lack of education, the seemingly imperatebilty OF exclusiveness.

The politics of extremism as represented by the Taliban, the economic meltdown and demographic pressure all point to a major implosion in Pakistan. Are we ready for the fallout?

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Friday, April 17, 2009

The Great Recession: America Becomes Thrift Nation Article in Time.

 

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1891527,00.html?xid=rss-fullnation-yahoo

If the trend TIME asserts is going to continue and America truly has a culture shift towards thrift, it would mean the conventional models for stimuli to demand will not work and Businesses will have to be innovative with their offerings which will result in further cost benefits for the consumer. Seems very close to the low-level equilibrium trap in which less developed countries find themselves.

For most of the third world at subsistence levels, societies consume exactly what they produce with little left for re-investment. As per capita income rises, the increasing population eats up surplus and forces society to its formal subsistence level. In other words there is no major change in over all living conditions.

Hence the argument for Government spending: the classical Keynesian economics. But is the spending in the right direction? furthermore since this is a Global recession would the disjointed efforts by some Governments produce an economic recovery?

The paradox is that consumer thrift strengthens the same forces which favor out-sourcing and further wage cuts. Global sourcing and integrated value chains have made Business cost agile but would they be able to respond quickly to the American consumer who would now not only need a product which is cheaper but to use it up, wear it out, make it do, do without.

The technology industry has a big role to play in turning around the economy and improving the environment. "Information is the dominant strategic resource in the economy in the 21st century,'' according to former Vice President Al Gore.

This morning (04-17-2009) I heard the outcome of the case on Piratebay.org on BBC. Needless to say information media is a global resource and like everything good eventually gets into someone’s idea of property and hence regulated. So what if the dominant advancement for mankind in the last 2 decades has been information technology…most of the required value to the thrift consumer has been provided by email, google, ebay to name a few. Needless to say these companies are probably over valued by conventional beliefs of value. But here I digress, let’s get back to the core problem of identifying true needs and offering a requisite service or product which would satisfy the thrift consumer.

One concept which readily comes to my mind which may arrest the vicious cycle of subsistence demand is diversity marketing: Shifting emphasis from selling to the vast, anonymous crowd to selling to millions of particular consumers. The evolution from mass to micro-marketing is a fundamental change driven as much by necessity as opportunity. America today is a far more diverse ... society than it was in the heyday of the mass market.

It is not only sufficient that business continuously make efforts to make offerings cheaper but in a thrift economy the offering itself has to make rapid leaps in technological advancement much the same way as the new media technologies like twitter have done. Now if only there was a revenue model for Twitter. Open-mouthed

And lastly Accounting skills are key to turn around financial crisis.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Discovering Web 2.0 and blog info

 

Finally I am a convert and here is my first post.

Firstly it was tough to decide what to blog about. I didn't want it to be my personal diary or a news feed. Secondly I am still discovering the proliferation of interconnectivity and interactivity of web-delivered content.

I have decided to bring contemporary issues affecting the Globally wired, twitter addicted, facebook personified life my side of the argument.

I will be picking on news items and opinions related to Business, political issues, and things which matter to me.

The X. in the blog title refers to X as an iteration or enhancement as in web 2.0.

So far now adios….